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Giants Quarterly Report
First Quarter - Pitchers
by Richard Van Zandt, BaseballEvolution.com
May 18, 2006


Giants Quarterly Report – The Pitchers

Last week we took a look at the Giants position players and how they had fared after the first 35 games.  This week we take a closer look at the pitchers and how they have performed thus far to the quarter mark of the season. 

 

Overall as a group, the Giants rank 24th in the majors (15th in the NL) with a 4.88 team ERA (including a 5.04 mark at pitcher friendly AT&T Park) and they have issued the seventh most walks (155) while tying with Tampa Bay for the third fewest strikeouts (214).  Led by ace starter Jason Schmidt, they’ve been a bit better of late though, posting a 4.41 ERA in the month of May, good for 17th in the Majors.  In April, plagued by injuries (to closer Armando Benitez and starter Noah Lowry) and a shaky bullpen, their ERA was over ¾ths of a run per game worse at 5.21.

 

The starters overall, though, have been slightly better than average with a 4.60 ERA (14th in the league) and they lead the majors in IP with 254.1 while averaging over 6 innings per start.  The bullpen on the other hand has been for the most part, terrible.  Their 5.53 ERA ranks them 28th in baseball as does their opponents’ .293 BAA.  Control has also been an issue, as they have walked over 4.5 batters per 9 innings, and as a whole, the team sports a 5.29 ERA from the 7th inning on.    

 

But let’s now look deeper and examine how each Giants pitcher has performed in the 2006 season to date. 

 

 

Starting Pitching – 15-15, 4.60 ERA – 254.1 IP – 130 ER

 

 
Streaky, or rejuvinated? 

Giants ace Jason Schmidt began the season 0-2 with a 5.33 ERA in four starts.  In 27 innings, Schmidt had walked 16 batters and struck out just 17 while allowing 23 hits.  Since then, Schmidt has turned it around and in his last four starts he is 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA.  In 32 innings during that span, he has struck out 25 and walked just 5 while surrendering just 18 hits, and has even been hitting 97 MPH on the radar gun for the first time since the 2004 season.  Only time will tell if we are simply seeing more of the bouts of inconsistency than have plagued him for more than a year now, or if we are witnessing a return to the form that made him a Cy Young candidate.

 

High expectations have surrounded Matt Morris, who was signed to a 3-year, $27 million deal in the off-season.  For the most part, he has not lived up to them.  Morris made two good starts to begin the year (4 earned runs and 9 hits in 14 innings – 2.57 ERA) then struggled mightily over a span of six starts (0-4, 7.83 ERA – 31 IP) before rebounding in his most recent start on May 17 against Houston, in which he pitched 8 innings and allowed only 3 hits and 1 run to run his overall record to 3-4 with a 5.43 ERA.  He has struggled badly against left handers, against whom he has posted an 8.06 ERA with a .291 batting average against.  Versus right handers, those numbers drop way down to 2.96 and .235. 

 

Signed to a 4-year, $9.25 million extension before the start of the year, third starter Noah Lowry went down with a strain of his oblique muscle in the home opener against Atlanta after pitching just 1.2 innings.  He missed more than a month before returning on May 8 and has made two starts since, beating Houston while allowing just 2 runs in 7 innings and getting a no-decision against the Dodgers.  In that start, he allowed just 2 runs through the first six before the bullpen broke down and allowed 3 runs in the 7th, all of which were charged to Lowry.  He possesses a devastating change up and is likely to become one of baseball’s top left handed starters.  Maintaining his healthy will be of the up most importance in terms of the Giants possible success. 

 

Jamey Wright, signed to a minor league contract in the off-season, has been perhaps the Giants’ most consistent starter this season, going 4-3 with a 4.23 ERA in 8 starts.  He had one bad start against San Diego (10 runs allowed, 7 earned in 5.1 innings) and his ERA is just 3.42 in the other seven.  He has pitched at least 6.2 innings or more in 7 of his starts, including a pair of 8 inning outings, and has the fourth highest GO/FO ratio (2.65) in the NL.  More importantly, he is averaging just 3.25 BB/9, down from his career average of 4.49.

 

Rookie Matt Cain has struggled badly and was replaced in the rotation temporarily by Brad Hennessey after posting a 1-5 record with a 7.04 ERA in 7 starts.  His numbers are a stark contrast to his seven starts from last season, in which he went 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA.  His WHIP is up from 0.93 to 1.54, and he has allowed 44 hits in 38.1 innings compared with 24 hits in 46.1 innings last season.  More notably, he has allowed 9 home runs already this year.  However, after working on the side with Pitching Coach Dave Righetti, Cain threw two perfect innings in relief on May 16 in Houston (lowering his ERA to 6.69) and is slated to start on May 21 against Oakland.

 

The 26 year-old Hennessey impressed the club while Lowry was out and boasts a solid 2.87 ERA (3.07 as a starter) with a 3-1 record.  The key for Hennessey has been limiting the number of base runners allowed as he has reduced his WHIP to 1.34, down from 1.51 last year.  Hitters are batting just .233 against him as well, down from .276 last season and .294 the year before.  One unsightly area for concern is with his K/BB ratio of 0.67.  In 31.1 innings this season, Hennessey has struck out just 10 batters (a rate of just 2.87 per 9 innings) while walking 15 (4.31 per 9). 

 

Bullpen – 6-5, 8/12 SV - 5.53 ERA – 67 ER – 109 IP

 

Closer Armando Benitez began the season on the DL with a strain of his left knee.  When he returned on April 20, he did so without a lot of his velocity.  Yet through guts and guile, he has done well, allowing no runs on just 5 hits in 6.2 innings over 7 appearances.  He has walked 5 batters, but three of those came during a two inning stint against the Mets.  His only blemish was a blown save in his first appearance, a game in Colorado in which he entered after Tim Worrell had loaded the bases.  He twice had the Giants within a strike of winning before allowing the tying and winning runs to score.  Since then, though, he has earned 2 wins and 2 saves in six games while regaining much of his velocity. 

 

The 39 year-old Worrell was signed in the off-season to a two-year deal to be the primary right handed set up man and backup closer.  He got off to a quick start, earning six saves and posting a 1.23 ERA in Benitez’ absence, but he has since struggled, allowing 10 runs in 7 innings (12.86 ERA).  In sixteen total appearances covering 14.1 innings, he has also allowed 6 home runs and batters are hitting .306 against him.  His ERA is 6.91.  He has been particularly ineffective against right handed hitters, who are batting .406 against him while averaging 17.55 hits allowed per 9 innings. 

 

Steve Kline was acquired from Baltimore in the off-season to replace Scott Eyre as the team’s top left handed setup man.  He has been fairly effective, posting a 3.65 ERA over 18 outings, 15 of which he did not allow a run.  Like most of the bullpen, though, he has had his problems with his control.  He has walked 9 batters in only 12.1 innings, striking out 6. 

 

Sinkerballer Scott Munter has not had problems getting the ground balls (his GO/FO ratio from last year is actually up to 3.30 from 2.67).  Rather, his problems have stemmed from getting hit hard and walking far too many hitters.  He has allowed 21 hits and walked 10 in just 16 innings.  Hitters are batting .368 and slugging .491 against him and he has averaged nearly 2 baserunners per inning pitched.  Though he has not allowed a run in 3 of his last 4 outings, with rookie Brian Wilson due off the DL soon, Munter may soon find himself in Fresno trying to right himself. 

 

25 year-old Kevin Correia has spent the last three seasons bouncing back and forth between the big league club and Fresno, working as both a reliever and spot starter.  He began this season at Fresno but was recalled on April 7 when Lowry went on the DL.  He has pitched well, sporting a 3.38 ERA and a .232 average against in 10 appearances covering 21.1 innings.  He’s allowed just 19 hits and has struck out 17 (a career best ratio of 7.17 per 9 innings), and has a WHIP of 1.36 (also a career best ratio).  He has walked 10, though 7 of those came during just 2 outings (including 4 in a 5.1 inning stint in relief of ejected starter Matt Morris).  His ERA for the month of May is just 2.16. 

 

When talking about 24 year-old hard throwing Jeremy Accardo, inevitably the conversation will drift to his “stuff.”  Undrafted out of college, it is his “stuff” that has the Giants thinking that Accardo is a closer in waiting.  He began the year on the big league roster, compiling a 7.71 ERA in 2.1 innings, only to be optioned out on April 16.  He returned 8 days later when Wilson was disabled, and has thrown the ball fairly well. Overall in 11 appearances, Accardo has a 3.95 ERA with 12 hits and just 5 walks while striking out 15 in 13.2 innings.  His ERA since his recall is 3.17 and he has walked just 2. 

 

After compiling a 1.62 ERA in 50 innings at three different stops last year in his second season of professional ball, the right handed Wilson was recalled on April 23 when Tyler Walker was designated for assignment.  He pitched once (2 innings, 2 hits and 3 strikeouts) and ended up on the DL the next day with a strained left oblique.  Wilson began a rehab assignment on May 12 and could be activated soon.

 

Jack Taschner began the season in the bullpen but after allowing 9 runs on 11 hits with 2 walks in 2.1 innings over 6 appearances (34.71 ERA); he was demoted to Fresno on April 20.  In 9 minor league appearances, he has 5.40 ERA (5 runs, 14 hits and just 1 walk in 8.1 innings).  With just one lefty currently in the pen, the Giants would love to see him regain the form that helped him post a 1.59 ERA over 24 outings in 2005. 

 

The Since Departed

 

Walker and Jeff Fassero began the season with the Giants, but pitched their way out of San Francisco.  Walker, a native San Franciscan, compiled a 15.19 ERA in 6 games and was traded to Tampa Bay despite saving 23 games last year for the Giants.  He has 5 saves in 6 opportunities for the D’Rays. 

 

The 43 year-old Fassero was designated for assignment on May 9, with the purpose of giving the veteran lefty his outright release.  He pitched 10 times for the team (including one start) and never got on track, allowing 23 hits and walking 8 over 15 innings.  His ERA was 7.80.  He is likely to retire.

 

Down on the Farm

 

Triple-A Fresno – Grade – C-

 

Merkin Valdez, once a rising star acquired from the Braves for Russ Ortiz, has struggled in his new role of closer, walking 12 and giving up 17 hits in 16.1 innings (4.96 ERA) in 15 games with 4 saves.  Lefty prospect Erick Threets has pitched 14 times and has a 3.78 ERA.  Carlos Hines (acquired from Tampa in return for Walker) has pitched four times without allowing a run.   Jeff Miller (picked up off waivers this past off-season from Pittsburgh) has a 3.14 ERA with 11 strikeouts and just 1 walk in 14.1 innings.

 

Double-A Connecticut – Grade – B+

 

SP Patrick Misch is 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA in 7 starts.  He has struck out 38 and walked 9 in posting a nice 0.91 WHIP.  Starter Garrett Broshuis has a 1.83 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in 6 starts.  Lefty reliever Jonathan Sanchez has caught the eye of Giants skipper Felipe Alou as well as the Giants’ top brass by striking out 39 batters and allowing just 13 hits while recording a 1.33 ERA with a 0.78 WHIP in 27 innings.  He has now struck out 266 batters in 201 minor league innings, and is likely to be a September call-up if not sooner.

 

Single-A San Jose – Grade – A-

 

SP Nick Pereira has sparkled in 7 starts with a 5-0 record and a 1.07 ERA in 42 innings.  He has also struck out 44 while walking only 9 and giving up just 28 hits for a 0.88 WHIP.  Reliever Thomas King has a 1.14 ERA in 14 games, although he also has issued 15 free passes.  Brooks McNiven has a 2.21 mark in 20.1 innings while striking out 21 and walking only 4.  Justin Hedrick has 21 K and 6 BB in 17.1 innings with a 1.56 ERA and a WHIP of 0.92.  Closer Brian Anderson has 9 saves and a 1.00 ERA in 18 innings.  He has struck out 20 and walked 4 in posting a 0.83 WHIP. 

 

Final Analysis – Overall record 21-20; T-4th NL West (through  5/17)

 

Of course at the quarter mark of the season, no analysis is going to be final.  But to this point it’s clear that the team’s pitchers (in particular the relievers) have performed woefully inadequately.  Still, there have been recent signs of improvement, and with nearly two weeks left in May, there is still plenty of time to turn things around. 

 

To do so, the team will need to see more of what they saw in Morris’ last start as well as see a continued resurgence by Schmidt.  They must hope for Lowry to remain healthy, for Wright to continue his effective pitching, and they must also not be afraid to turn to Hennessey in the event Cain continues to struggle. 

 

They must continue to see Benitez prove himself healthy and effective.  They’ll need to get consistent performances out of Correia and Accardo, as well as Kline and Munter, if they hope to compete in a stronger than expected NL West.   

 

They must also hope for a turnaround from Worrell.  At 39, it would be hard to move him (as they did with Walker) and having him signed to a two-year deal makes it less likely that the team would opt to simply cut their losses and release him (a la Fassero). 

 

Taken as a whole, the Giants pitchers’ performance thus far has not been very good.  Still, there have been certain signs (Correia and Accardo most specifically) that improvement is not only possible, but likely.  This, coupled with the recent improvements in the lineup (Durham, Matheny and Feliz have all gotten hot since last week’s recap of the hitters), as well as their current position in the standings, gives the team and its fans hope for a solid, competitive second half. 




Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Richard lives in San Francisco and can be reached at richard@baseballevolution.com.


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