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Normally, losing a catcher that had an OPS+ of 80 the previous season who has had his named linked to the Mitchell report would be addition by subtraction. However, starting Schneider and his career 82 OPS+ isn’t a sexy replacement. Ramon Castro was originally the starter, but a recent hamstring injury will cause him to start the season on the shelf. Any offensive output from this position will represent a bonus.
In my 2007 preview, I wrote that Delgado would fall off, and he certainly did. Every single one of Delgado’s numbers fell, and fell considerably. I don’t think his OPS+ will drop another 30 points, but he is another year older and has been suffering from a hip injury. The worst part about the Delgado situation is they have no one worthy to platoon with him. Marlon Anderson is their best option coming off the bench, and I would rather have a gimpy Delgado over Anderson any day.
What in the blue hell were the Mets thinking? Singing a 32-year old second baseman to a four-year, 25 million dollar contract one month after he had knee surgery? Sure, he is a career .294 hitter who plays adequate defense at an up-the-middle position, but his power is toddler-like, he doesn’t walk enough to make up for it, and he hasn’t been a demon on the base-paths in quite some time. On top of all of this, the Mets recently cut Ruben Gotay. Gotay is no stud himself, however should Castillo miss time this season, the Mets would be stuck with a 38 year-old Damion Easley and his career .329 OBP.
I’ve said quite a few bad things about the Mets in this preview, but the word “bad” and David Wright simply don’t mix. Wright, last year was robbed of an MVP Award, but there is no need to worry, as I’m sure many more opportunities will come in the near future. There are simply no flaws in his game. He hits for power, average, draws walks, has the ability to steal a bag, and handles the hot corner well enough.
Let me start off by saying that I love Jose Reyes, and I think he will be one of the best players in the league in years to come. I even drafted him in two of my fantasy leagues this year. However, we can’t ignore the fact that his career OPS is below league average. There are some good signs, like an increased walk rate and decreased strikeout rate. The major concern with Jose is his HR totals. Is he a 20-HR a year guy or 10-15 a year guy? I’m not quite sure that his 2006 power numbers were a fluke as Eric Karabell of ESPN has recently noted. If I were to guess, I would think that as Jose matures, and becomes more familiar with the strike zone, which he has done quite well recently, the HR will come.
Taking Alou’s place in left field, at least for now, will be Angel Pagan. Pagan has hit .329 this spring, with six extra base hits. However, don’t be fooled. There is a reason why he is 26 years old with only 148 games under his belt, and that is his not-so-good minor track record. His career minor-league OPS of .710 is hardly exciting, and he has only hit 18 HR in 626 games. If there is a strength to his game, it is his speed, as he has stolen 204 bases at a 71% clip. Beltran is coming off a year in which his legs have bothered him, and coming off arthroscopic surgery on both of his knees, he appears to be entering this one with the same problem,. If Beltran is healthy, he is capable of putting together a 30-30 season with great defense in the outfield. The Mets acquired Ryan Church from Washington along with Schneider for Lastings Milledge. Church played in his first full season last year at the age of 28. He put up respectable numbers: .272/.349/.464 15 HR. One thing that jumps out at you are his lefty/right splits. He has an OPS of .855 versus right-handers and only a .655 OPS against left-handers. If he is managed well, and sits against most lefties, he could become a valuable asset.
For a team with age and injury questions at several positions, this is hardly the group you want providing insurance. Yikes.
The rotation is full of question marks after those two, not that Pedro Martinez is exactly question mark-free at the top. John Maine won the 2007 Mark Redman Award. Oliver Perez combined for a 6.22 ERA in 2005 and 2006. El Duque may be older than the New York Mets franchise itself, and Mike Pelfrey hasn’t even shown glimpses of his supposed potential at the major league level yet. Still, at worst, this rotation is vastly improved from last year’s circus, and if all goes right, it could form the best front four in baseball. Part of the determining factor for this will be the health of Beltran and Castillo. If they play defense up to their potential, the Mets will once again rank among the best fielding teams in baseball. If their knees can’t hold up, a lot of balls are going to find holes that weren’t there last year.
Billy Wagner remains an unheralded closer, considering he is 7th all time in career saves and sports an ERA+ of 180. He has added both a curveball and a changeup to his arsenal this year, and should have been the second reliever selected in any fantasy draft after J.J. Putz. The rest of the bullpen is solid if unspectacular, though Heilman has been teetering on the brink of spectacular for a while, now. Outlook for the Season These Mets look a lot like the 2006 Minnesota Twins: A half dozen star-studded players surrounded by an uninspired mess. Those Twins did win 96 games and one of the toughest division races of all time, but only after renowned GM Terry Ryan called a series of spectacular audibles in May. Omar Minaya will need to pull off a similar feat and the Mets will need to prove healthier then they appear to begin the season, or else they may find themselves falling short in an improved National League. Team Previews Index Do you have a different take? Send your opinions to submissions@baseballevolution.com. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
