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TheHardball Times Baseball Annual 2007 is overflowing with articles on baseball history, the 2006 season, and sabermetric analysis. It also has stats and graphs you can't get anywhere else. Read Tony's Review for more info.

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News and Notes
Previous News and Notes

2008
April | May | June | July | August
January and February | March

2007
November and December
September and October
July and August
May and June
March and April
January and February

2006
October-December | August and September
June and July | April and May
January-March | Richard's DN&N

2003 | 2004 | 2005

We recently had a discussion on the Baseball Evolution message boards concerning what the criteria should be for selecting the Manager of the Year Award.  Basically, the discussion centered around whether success, overachievement, or intangibles should factor most into consideration. Coincidentally, The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2009 became available days later, and featured an article by Michael Lichtman entitled, "The Manager of the Year."  Keith compares Lichtman's findings to his own rudimentary analysis and learns some things along the way.




How much more effective of a closer was Brad Lidge than single-season saves leader Francisco Rodriguez this year?  Did Mariano Rivera's spectacular season put him on par with Trevor Hoffman in career Linear Saves?  How did Dan Quisenberry jump two spots on the career Linear Saves list this year?  Keith reviews the 2008 Linear Saves totals for baseball's closers and re-examines the best closers of all-time.

The 2008 Gold Glove Awards have been announced for both leagues. There were few travesties this year. Derek Jeter did not win a trophy, although that is due to his poor offensive season rather than a sudden realization of his lackluster defense, as evidenced by Derek Jeter Jr. winning the AL shortstop hardware instead. No designated hitters won awards this year. Albert Pujols did get snubbed again, but there's no point in going on and on about that.

But there was one glaring, smack-a-sausage-with-a-baseball-bat graphic blunder. Nate McLouth was a lousy McPick for a National League Gold Glove Award.

November is upon us, so it's time to determine which players are deserving of postseason accolades. Richard begins award season by analyzing the contenders for the NL Cy Young Award. He finds five pitchers with serious Cy Young credentials, narrows that field down to two, then comes to his inevitable conclusion.

It has been 27 years between World Championships for the Philadelphia Phillies, and for some reason, everyone is acting like that is an absurdly long time, despite the fact that Philadelphia's previous World Series drought had lasted nearly 100 years.  The ridiculous Curse of William Penn only had the power to last for what was almost the exact odds for a team to win the World Series, since there were 26 teams in the majors between 1981-1992, 28 between 1993-1997, and 30 between 1998-2008. 

Not only was the Philly victory odds-on, but it was predictable as well.  Keith predicted that the Phillies would win in five with the Rays taking Game Two after correctly pegging the Phillies over the Brew Crew in four games in the NLDS.  Keith even had this to say in an email to Asher after Asher had talked up Gabe Gross: "I have been trying to figure out why Eric Hinske hasn't been on the postseason rosters."  Hinske, of course, would be a late addition to the World Series roster, homering in his first at-bat in nearly a month before fanning in the final at bat of the series.

What wasn't necessarily predictable was the postseason ineptitude of Akinori Iwamura following his strong showing in the ALDS.  In fact, Keith writes that it has been an unexpectedly disappointing season for Asian players in general.

One of the first things you learn about when you move to Philadelphia is the Curse of Billy Penn. During Rocky's famous run up the Museum steps, you can see downtown Philadelphia circa 1979 behind him. There are no tall buildings. Apparently there was once a time when a “gentleman’s agreement” guaranteed that no buildings would be built taller than the top of the hat of the statue of William Penn atop City Hall. For decades this agreement was kept, but in the early 1980s, the gentleman’s agreement was breached, and Philadelphia now has several buildings that tower over the statue of the state’s namesake.

And in case you haven’t heard, the city’s major professional sports teams haven’t won a championship since, despite the fact that they have all had their shots. 2008 represents the City of Philadelphia's most recent chance to break the curse. Will it happen?

The Rays know how to celebrate

After bringing up the rear of the AL East division in nine of 10 seasons and never finishing with more than 70 victories in a single season, the Tampa Bay franchise is headed for the World Series. Gregory revels in a remarkable ALCS and looks forward to the World Series in his final Pepper.

ALCS MVP Matt Garza is making Bill Smith rue his first trade as Minnesota Twins general manager, a November, 2007 deal that sent Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan to the Rays in exchange for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie.



Cole Hamels won the 2008 NLCS MVP Award

The Philadelphia Phillies are truly a franchise with a troubled history. Their .470 historical winning percentage easily ranks the lowest among non-expansion franchises. Between 1919 and 1945, the team finished either 7th or 8th in an eight-team league 20 times, and between 1918 and 1948, the Phillies only finished better than 6th in their league three times and only better than 5th once (a 4th-place finish in 1932).

Before Wednesday night, the Phillies had only won five pennants in 125 years. They have made it six in their sixth straight season of winning baseball. Congratulations, Philadelphia, on your recent successes!

After two disheartening road losses in Philadelphia, the Los Angeles Dodgers appear to be back in business. They beat the Phillies 7-2 Sunday night, taking care of some psychological business at the same time. At least one player may ride on the coattails of this Dodger success into an unjustifyably lucrative contract this offseason, writes Gregory.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies each went an impressive 17-8 in September and both handled their Division Series opponents without much trouble. In both 1977 and 1978, the Dodgers slipped past the Phillies for the right to lose to the 100-win New York Yankees in the World Series. What is in store for 2008? Tony breaks it down.

Even though Asher undershot the Tampa Bay Rays' 2008 win total by a full 10 games, he came closer to their actual record than most prognosticators did. Meanwhile, he overshot the Red Sox' win total by six games. Many of what has now become the nation's most annoying fan base are undaunted by the fact that the Rays won the AL East this season and predict that the Red Sox will make the World Series for the third time in five years.

What prediction does Asher, who has adopted the Rays as his favorite American League team, now make, knowing that his track record in picking postseason series is lacking? Find out in his ALCS Preview.


The 2008 postseason precipitates Gregory to discuss Javier Vazquez' recent struggles, the Dodgers' superiority over the Cubs, the future of the Brewers' pitching staff, and more. Check out his bonus postseason pepper.


What does Angels-Red Sox make you think of? The two teams that have bludgeoned the Yankees in the playoffs for the better part of this decade? Coast-to-coast rivalry between one of the original American League teams and one of baseball history’s more anonymous expansion teams?

For many, it is the matchup between the two top teams in the playoffs this year. One of them has to go home, and Asher tells you which one he believes it will be.

If you think the Brewers versus the Phillies is a mismatch, get a load of this one. Some people give the White Sox a chance because they have momentum, experience, and a mouthy manager. Keith does not. Not only were the Rays a far superior team in the regular season, but they are rested, will play in front of packed houses, and are better-prepared for a short series.


The Philadelphia Phillies had another hot September to leapfrog the New York Mets and enter the postseason. That did not help them advance in the playoffs last year against a sizzling hot Colorado Rockies squad, but this year they face a Milwaukee Brewers team that faded in September despite the incredible efforts of Workelephant C.C. Sabathia. Keith analyzes the teams and determines who has the edge in this series.

The Chicago Cubs and LA Dodgers have each made an impact late-season acquisition (Rich Harden and Manny Ramirez). Both teams developed an all-around fantastic young catcher (Geovanny Soto and Russell Martin). Both franchises house fan bases hungry for a World Series victory (100 years and 20 years). Yet the Cubs and the Dodgers are more unalike than alike, writes Keith, who contrasts the teams and gives his prediction for the series.



In the final Pepper of the season, Gregory gets excited about the resurgence of the workhorse, talks about the recent play of the White Sox and Brewers, plus makes his haphazard picks for the postseason. Four "History of the Weeks" are also included.


A chapter in baseball history closed Sunday night when Mariano Rivera pitched the final inning of Major League Baseball in Yankee Stadium. Tony offers us a recap of the evening's ceremonies while Gregory shares his experiences from a game there earlier this month.


This week, Gregory exposes a Bonehead Sportswriter in the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo, who is under the impression that Jon Lester is an elite pitcher while Scott Kazmir is junk based on one poor outing. Also, see two formerly great pitchers attempting comebacks with the Detroit Tigers contrasted.




In Part VI of our series ranking the top prospects of the San Francisco Giants, Richard examines the organization's top starting pitchers and divulges the top ten prospects in the organization overall.




In Part V of our series on the top San Francisco Giants prospects, Richard examines the organization's top relievers. Brian Wilson has been a resounding success, but there is no shortage of young arms waiting in the wings should he falter.


Carlos Zambrano no-hit the Astros under somewhat unfair circumstances, though the big guy did have a four-seamer averaging 97 MPH, a two-seamer averaging 95 MPH, and impeccable control working Sunday night. Gregory thinks that inconsistencies in his command put him in the National League's second tier of starting pitchers, however.

Speaking of unfair, is it okay to fire a manager who on September 15th had already led his team to it's best record in 16 years? Gregory thinks so. Read what else he has to say about the week's events.



In Part IV of our series on the top prospects of the San Francisco Giants, Richard examines the organization's top outfielders. Brian Sabean hopes to find a youngster who can match the apparent success of left fielder Fred Lewis.



In Part III of our series on the top San Francisco Giants Prospects, Richard examines the organization's top middle infielders. Many of these prospects have played for the big league club this year, as both second base and shortstop are areas of dire need for this franchise.



In Part II of our series on the top prospects of the San Francisco Giants, Richard examines the organization's top corner infielders. A first baseman who just turned 18 and a third baseman just drafted this year headline the group as fast-risers. Angel Villalona and Conor Gillaspie are not just top Giants prospects, but some of the most exciting young prospects in all of baseball.


Will the inexperienced Rays continue to struggle down the stretch and let the Red Sox overtake them in the division? Can the Chicago White Sox still win the AL Central without Carlos Quentin? Can the Mets hang on without Billy Wagner? Who prevails: Adam Dunn's Diamondbacks or Manny Ramirez' Dodgers?

Only the eight playoff teams remain above the Line of Death as we reveal the Final Baseball Evolution Power Rankings for this season.

Who should win the AL MVP Award? What more can Alex Rodriguez do to immortalize himself in baseball history? Will Mike Mussina win 20 games? Who won the AL batting crown in 1910?

These questions are addressed in Gregory's Weekly Pepper piece.


Today begins a six-part, two-week analysis of the San Francisco Giants' top prospects by position. Richard Van Zandt begins with a ranking of the top five catching prospects in the organization, and it's no surprise as to who comes in at #1.



As you'll recall, yesterday Asher decided to do a little experiment to see how much the awards landscape changes during the month of September. Well, less than 24 hours after his article, the Chicago White Sox announced that Carlos Quentin will miss the next two-to-three weeks with a broken wrist.

So one day into the experiment, Asher must revise one of his picks, and his backup choice is not someone you would likely expect.

Last season, Asher wrote an article on September 26 in which he assailed the notion that Jimmy Rollins could possibly be considered the NL MVP, and laughed at Phillies fans for chanting "M-V-P" when Rollins came up to bat. But by the time the World Series was grinding to a close, Asher supported the idea of Jimmy Rollins as the Most Valuable Player.

With this in mind, Asher takes a look at the players we expect to win each league's major awards with just under a month to play, and then see how things ultimately turn out.

This week's Pepper focuses on all things pitching, from a nine-year old Little Leaguer who throws too hard for his own good, to Mark Prior's pitching mechanics, to Aaron Harang's disappointing season, to Ryan Dempster's shocking season, to Josh Fogg's unsuccessful return from injury, to a comparison between Brandon Webb and Tim Lincecum, to the fleeting nature of middle relief dominance, to the return of Everyday Eddie Guardado. It also features extensive commentary on the incendiary Jay Marriotti's resignation.

What's New?

Team Capsules
(Updated 1/5)


Award Room

Linear Saves 2008

Final 2008 Standings


Headlines
Bargain Burrell

Sizing up Sizemore

New York
Pitching Acquisitions


The Giants' Fraudulent
Youth Movement


Overrating Babe Ruth

Evaluating Managers

Another Gold Glove Gaffe

NL Cy Young Analysis

A Poor Year for Asian Imports

Top Giants Prospects:
C | CI | MI | OF | RP | SP

The Glabbe Gaffe

Manny/Bay Trade Analysis
Next Year's
Brewers and Rays


A Conversation with
Jack McDowell


Expansion Dilutes Hitting?

Mike Piazza and
Caught Stealing Runs


More News, Notes, and Headlines




Two New Baseball Voices Tribute CDs available in The Baseball Evolution Store: Bob Uecker and Harry Kalas

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