by Keith Glab, BaseballEvolution.com
November 13, 2008
Page 1 Page 2 Page 3
LSV Intro
Last year, I came up with a simple new statistic called
Linear Saves, which basically compares a
closer's saves and blown saves to his peers'. The result is then expressed
in the number of saves above or below what the league's average closer would
convert given the same number of opportunities.
| Perfect Closer |
Year |
SV |
LSV |
| Eric Gagne |
2003 |
55 |
9.0 |
| Brad Lidge |
2008 |
41 |
6.6 |
| Rod Beck |
1994* |
28 |
5.5 |
| Mike Gonzalez |
2006 |
24 |
3.8 |
| Robb Nen |
1994* |
15 |
2.9 |
| * Strike-shortened season |
LSV= SV-(Opps*LgSV%)
The stat came up a bit short in its audacious
goal of comparing closer productivity fairly across disparate eras. It is,
however, a stat that evaluates a reliever's aptitude for saving games far better
than looking at saves or saves percentage alone. The 2008 season gives us
a terrific chance to see Linear Saves in action, as it featured a new single
season saves leader in Francisco Rodriguez (62-for-69: 89.9%) and only the
second instance ever of a pitcher with at least 30 save opportunities in a
season converting all of his chances.
We knew that Brad Lidge would net more Linear Saves than K-Rod, but it would
no doubt surprise many to learn that the all-time single-season saves king
finished fourth in this counting stat measuring save efficiency. Or maybe
it wouldn't, given that each of those three relievers posted a noticeably better
ERA than did Mr. Rodriguez.
2008 Linear Saves (Min 10 Saves):
|
Player |
W |
L |
WPct |
Sv |
BS |
SV% |
Linear |
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
HR |
BB |
K |
ERA |
|
Brad Lidge |
2 |
0 |
1 |
41 |
0 |
100.0% |
6.6 |
69 1/3 |
50 |
17 |
15 |
2 |
35 |
92 |
1.95 |
|
Mariano Rivera |
6 |
5 |
0.545 |
39 |
1 |
97.5% |
5.4 |
70 2/3 |
41 |
11 |
11 |
4 |
6 |
77 |
1.40 |
|
Joakim Soria |
2 |
3 |
0.4 |
42 |
3 |
93.3% |
4.2 |
67 1/3 |
39 |
13 |
12 |
5 |
19 |
66 |
1.60 |
|
Francisco Rodriguez |
2 |
3 |
0.4 |
62 |
7 |
89.9% |
4.1 |
68 1/3 |
54 |
21 |
17 |
4 |
34 |
77 |
2.24 |
|
Jonathan Papelbon |
5 |
4 |
0.556 |
41 |
5 |
89.1% |
2.4 |
69 1/3 |
58 |
24 |
18 |
4 |
8 |
77 |
2.34 |
|
B.J. Ryan |
2 |
4 |
0.333 |
32 |
4 |
88.9% |
1.8 |
58 |
46 |
21 |
19 |
4 |
28 |
58 |
2.95 |
|
Brian Wilson |
3 |
2 |
0.6 |
41 |
6 |
87.2% |
1.6 |
62 1/3 |
62 |
32 |
32 |
7 |
28 |
67 |
4.62 |
|
Brian Fuentes |
1 |
5 |
0.167 |
30 |
4 |
88.2% |
1.5 |
62 2/3 |
47 |
22 |
19 |
3 |
22 |
82 |
2.73 |
|
Trevor Hoffman |
3 |
6 |
0.333 |
30 |
4 |
88.2% |
1.5 |
45 1/3 |
38 |
19 |
19 |
8 |
9 |
46 |
3.77 |
|
Bobby Jenks |
3 |
1 |
0.75 |
30 |
4 |
88.2% |
1.5 |
61 2/3 |
51 |
18 |
18 |
3 |
17 |
38 |
2.63 |
|
Jensen Lewis |
0 |
4 |
0 |
13 |
1 |
92.9% |
1.3 |
66 |
68 |
29 |
28 |
8 |
27 |
52 |
3.82 |
|
Joe Nathan |
1 |
2 |
0.333 |
39 |
6 |
86.7% |
1.2 |
67 2/3 |
43 |
13 |
10 |
5 |
18 |
74 |
1.33 |
|
Jose Valverde |
6 |
3 |
0.667 |
44 |
7 |
86.3% |
1.2 |
72 |
62 |
28 |
27 |
10 |
23 |
83 |
3.38 |
|
Troy Percival |
2 |
1 |
0.667 |
28 |
4 |
87.5% |
1.2 |
45 2/3 |
29 |
26 |
23 |
9 |
27 |
38 |
4.53 |
|
Mike Gonzalez |
0 |
3 |
0 |
14 |
2 |
87.5% |
0.6 |
33 2/3 |
26 |
21 |
16 |
6 |
14 |
44 |
4.28 |
|
C.J. Wilson |
2 |
2 |
0.5 |
24 |
4 |
85.7% |
0.5 |
46 1/3 |
49 |
35 |
31 |
8 |
27 |
41 |
6.02 |
|
Francisco Cordero |
|