You always hear that you shouldn’t take April stats too seriously.  Fortunately, we now have May statistics with which to compliment them.  For the players with vastly disparate April and May stats, we’ll take a look and decide which month more accurately reflects each player’s abilities.

 

Hitters – Good April, Bad May

 

Player-Month	At Bats	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
Chris Shelton-A	92	10	20	326	404	783
Shelton-M	91	1	8	286	340	363
Brad Ausmus-A	62	0	7	339	462	387
Ausmus-M	89	0	6	270	327	337
Miguel Tejada-A	102	6	21	422	459	618
Tejada-M	107	8	19	224	300	514
David Ortiz-A	97	10	20	278	391	618
Ortiz-M	98	5	28	255	333	514

 

• Chris Shelton’s April was even a more obvious fluke than Brian Roberts’ 2005 April.  The only surprise is that the Tigers have continued to play well despite Shelton’s predictable collapse.

 

• The most unusual part of Ausmus’ April was his .462 OBP and 7/11 K/BB ratio.  His May ratio was 17/7, much more in line with his career numbers, and causing all of his averages to slide.

 

• Yes, Tejada’s average really was 198 points lower in May.  He slumped last May as well, only to hit a second wind through June and July, before sinking with the rest of the orioles from August on.  Like Cal Ripken before him, shortstops that regularly play 162 games are going to falter as the season wears on.  We’re just noticing it more with Tejada now that he has entered his 30’s.  If the Orioles continue to use him every day, woe is the next team that signs this worn down player to a huge contract.

 

• David’s April numbers are actually about in line with his actual abilities.  It’s interesting to note that Ortiz (and to a lesser extent, Tejada) has lived up to his billing as a money player and continued to drive in runs despite a down month.

 

 

 

Hitters – Bad April, Good May

 

Player-Month	At Bats	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
Frank Thomas-A	79	5	11	190	264	405
Thomas-M	71	6	17	268	436	535
Mackowiak-A	35	0	4	143	250	200
Mackowiak-M	64	2	5	344	425	500
Eric Byrnes-A	59	1	5	237	318	373
Byrnes-M	99	8	16	364	406	717
Jose Castillo-A	77	1	6	234	294	312
Castillo-M	101	7	21	366	413	634

 

• Since the Big Hurt had been hurt each of the past two seasons, it’s only natural to have expected him to take a little time to get his swing back.  The wait is over.  His May numbers are for real… but is his clean bill of health?

 

• Ozzie Guillen has gradually given utility man Rob Mackowiak more and more playing time as nagging injuries to Jermaine Dye, a slow start for Scott Podsednik (OPS: .592-A, .938-M), and season-long slumps to Brian Anderson have warranted.  As the playing time has increased, so have the numbers.  Now, Ozzie has officially named RoMack as Anderson’s platoon partner in center.  Caution: Mackowiak’s career Pre/Post splits for OPS are .768/.710.  Depending on the strength of the platoon, he may be fine, but Robbie just doesn’t seem to have the stamina for a 500 AB season.

 

• Eric Byrnes’ splits are misleading.  He’s got a 1.110 OPS in baseball’s most extreme hitter’s park, but it’s a mortal .810 on the road.  Byrnes played in 8 home games in April, 13 in May.  You’ll see similarly disparate home/road splits for most Diamondbacks players, but Byrnes was a role player in April, and had the misfortune of starting in predominately road games.

 

• Between May 9 and May 31, Castillo has raised his OPS from .566 to .855, and he finished the month with homers in five consecutive games.  I’m not buying into this.  Castillo’s .416 SLG last year was his highest since A-ball in 2002.  His walk rate is improving, but I’m going to need to see more than three great weeks to become a Castillo believer.    

 

Pitchers – Good April, Bad May

 

Pitcher-Month	W-L	IP	K	BB	ERA
Kris Benson-A	3-2	31.1	17	11	3.45
Benson-M	3-2	34.1	16	13	6.03
Erik Bedard-A	4-1	31.2	19	9	3.69
Bedard-M	1-3	38.2	17	17	7.85
Chris Capuano-A	4-2	42	40	9	2.36
Capuano-M	1-2	39	30	9	4.38
Greg Maddux-A	5-0	33.1	24	6	1.35
Maddux-M	1-4	33.1	18	10	7.29

 

• I don’t mean to pick on the Orioles and new pitching coach Leo Mazzone with two Oriole pitchers on this list, but what choice do they leave me?  I realize that the Orioles always collapse towards the end of the year, even when they’re not starting off well to begin with, but isn’t this a little early?  And isn’t this the sort of thing that Mazzone was brought in to prevent?

 

• Bedard pulled this stunt last year when he came back from his injury.  After a stellar April, we thought, “OK, 2005 pre-injury was for real.  Had he not gotten injured, he’d have had an ERA around 3.”  Now, he just looks like a pitcher that the league can figure out after a few looks.

 

• C-Cap has finally displayed some command, command which did not diminish in May.  When your team gets swept by the Pirates in a four-game series at the end of the month, you know it’s been a bad month.  The Brewers are just going through a bad spell; Capuano and company will bounce back.

 

• Saving the most extreme for last.  As bad as the rest of the Cubs team is, I’d prefer to credit Maddux for keeping the Cubs competitive in April rather than blame him for their historically terrible May.  Once Lee gets back, it should be Womack and Walker at second base, and that’s not such good news for a groundball pitcher (although honestly, Hairston Jr. and Neifi weren’t exactly impressing there).  

 

Pitchers – Bad April, Good May

 

Pitcher-Month	W-L	IP	K	BB	ERA
Paul Byrd-A	3-2	24.2	14	10	8.03
Byrd-M	1-2	34	18	3	3.18
Miguel Batista-A	2-1	27	24	11	6.33
Batista-M	3-1	40.2	19	16	2.66
Barry Zito-A	1-2	27.1	23	14	2.36
Zito-M	3-1	41	28	20	4.38
Jason Schmidt-A	1-2	34	26	18	4.76
Schmidt-M	4-0	46	35	7	1.17

 

• I’m working on a theory that extreme control pitchers (Byrd, Lieber, Radke, Silva, Moehler, Towers) tend to be very inconsistent as compared with power pitchers.  This makes sense empirically, since if your stuff isn’t great, any bouts of leaving pitches over the plate are going to get you plastered.  Also, allowing lots of balls in play allows for luck to play a larger role in your starts.  It also makes sense statistically; Bill James determined that once a modern starting pitcher’s strikeout rate dips below 4.5 per 9 innings, he cannot be consistently successful at the big league level.  So when low strikeout pitchers have stretches with fewer strikeouts than average, you get a bad looking month.  Of course, Byrd’s problem in April was not hat he wasn’t striking enough batters out, rather that he was uncharacteristically walking people to add to his always-high hit totals.

 

• Naturally, Batista pitches better away from Chase Field (3.55/4.85), but that split isn’t too extreme for him since he’s a ground ball pitcher.  But he’s not suffering from Eric Byrnes Syndrome, since he’s made as many starts at home as he has on the road in May.  Rather, he’s benefiting from Derek Lowe Syndrome: focusing on getting ground ball outs rather than strikeouts to get hitters out.  Don’t get me wrong; he still needs to hover at or above the magic 4.5K/9IP in strikeouts, but as you can see, his 8K/9IP in April didn’t do much for him.    

 

• Zito’s got a career Pre-AS ERA of 3.86, and his Post-AS ERA is eighty points lower.  If this year’s an indication that he’s going to start turning it on in May rather than July, then look out, AL hitters!

 

• Schmidt is back.  A 5:1 K/BB ratio doesn’t lie.  San Francisco quietly exercised Schmidt’s $10.5 million 2006 option despite his down year in 2005.  Hopefully for them, Schmidt will repay Brian Sabean and company with a hometown discount this offseason, because a lot of teams would pay a lot of money for his future services.

 

 

Obviously, Schmidt’s not going to pitch at a 1.17 ERA clip for the rest of the year.  All of these players are going to perform somewhere between their April rates and their May rates; I’m just doing the best I can to gauge which rate they’ll finish closer to.