Next Year's Brewers and Rays
by Asher B. Chancey, BaseballEvolution.com
August 4, 2008

Before the season started, I laid it on the line for the Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers. I was convinced that both teams were destined for success, and thus far 2008 has rewarded my faith. Why? Well, for one thing, I was convinced that both teams were loaded with good, young, developing talent. But more importantly, I noted an important step taken by both teams: both the Brewers and the Rays made important strides in improving their defenses this past off-season, and it has made all the difference.

Take, for example, an ESPN.com stat called DIP%, which (I assume, without a formal definition) compares a team’s defense-independent ERA (or DIPS) to its traditional defense-dependant ERA. The teams low on the list have defenses that undermine their pitching staffs. The teams high on the list have defenses that make their pitching staffs. Last season, Milwaukee finished 23rd in Major League Baseball in DIP% while the Rays finished dead last in all of baseball. In 2008, Tampa Bay ranks fourth in the majors while Milwaukee is seventh.

It is, in a sense, as simple as that – teams with lots of talent on the mound and at the plate but with bad defenses address their defense and turn their franchise around.

So, based on this simple formula, are there any teams to watch for next season? Well, it is too early to tell which teams are going to address their defensive woes this off-season, but it is not too soon to tell which teams need to.

Colorado Rockies

Last season, Troy Tulowitski emerged as one of the game’s great defensive talents, Colorado finished in the top ten in DIP%, and the Rockies went to the World Series. This year, Tulowitski got hurt, and the Rockies plummeted. Wondering why the Rockies haven’t repeated their impressive performance from a year ago thus far in 2008? This season, the Rockies are dead last in the majors in DIP%.

Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers have one of the most impressive offenses in baseball, and it has paid off for a team on pace for its first winning season since 2004. But their defense has been abysmal, and the Rangers lead – distantly – all of baseball in errors while ranking second in hits allowed per inning. If the Rangers can improve upon their 28th-ranked DIP% by acquiring a legitimate defensive centerfielder, moving Michael Young to anywhere but shortstop, and developing Chris Davis into a bona fide first baseman, the Rangers could make a run at the wild card next year.

Florida Marlins

The Marlins have to be considered the Brewers of 2008. A remarkably talented offense, a promising but young and raw pitching staff, and a fantastically poor defense has them six games over .500 even though their Pythagorean projection puts them at four games under .500. The problem for the Marlins lies in their superstar talent – Hanley Ramirez is one of the best young hitters in Major League Baseball, but he is also one of the game’s poorest defenders (though he is improving). Dan Uggla is having a breakout year on offense, but remains one of the uninspiring defensive second basemen in the league. Shockingly, Cody Ross has developed into a wonderful centerfielder, but until the Marlins fix the middle infield (can Hanley Ramirez be Ryan Brauned out to left field?) the pitching will continue to give up unnecessary runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Wondering how Pittsburgh could be so bad despite such a solid offense? Wondering why a seemingly promising pitching staff has failed to develop the way we all thought they would? Pittsburgh sports the 27th team DIP%, and the worst up the middle defense anywhere. Freddy Sanchez’s gaudy range factor masks his horrendous zone rating and mediocre revised zone rating. Jack Wilson has been a good defensive shortstop when he has played. Brian Bixler is a great defender, but all the defensive prowess in the world doesn’t justify batting a guy with an 18 OPS+. The real problem, though, is Nate McLouth, who despite making many plays outside of his zone, ranks dead last in the majors in both ESPN.com’s zone rating and The Hardball Times’ Revised Zone Rating. Throw in the mediocre defensive play of Adam LaRoche and the now departed Jason Bay, and it is no surprise that the Pirates rate last in Major League Baseball with 10.3 hits allowed per game.

Cincinnati Reds

The runner up in the NL for errors is also the team that ranked fourth in fewest double plays turned and third in hits allowed per game. The odd thing about the Reds is that one their middle infielders, Brandon Phillips, is one of the best defensive second basemen in the game. However, the combination of Jeff Keppinger, Jerry Hairston, and Paul Janish has been deplorable defensively, and neither Corey Patterson nor Jay Bruce has been particularly consistent in centerfield, though Jay Bruce looks to have all the potential in the world. But none of these problems is in any way significant compared to the Oh-my-god-I-didn’t-know-it-could-be-that-bad defensive play of Edwin Encarnacion at third base. Encarnacion has committed the second most errors at third in baseball, ranks dead last in baseball amongst third basemen with a .621 revised zone rating (check that out to see how bad it is), and ranks ahead of only Jorge Cantu in zone rating.

At the end of the day, the Cincinnati Reds look to be the team with the most to gain from addressing their defense before next season. Brandon Phillips is already a top notch second baseman, Jay Bruce looks to have potential to be an excellent centerfielder, and Joey Votto will likely improve with age at first base. Not only that, but Ken Griffey, Jr. will no longer be commanding playing time somewhere in the outfield, which is simply addition by subtraction. And unlike the other teams mentioned above (particularly the Texas Rangers), the Reds have a very talented pitching staff from a DIPS perspective – Edinson Volquez is the only member of the rotation having a good season in 2008, but Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, and Aaron Harang all have excellent peripheral stats. The team is third in the NL in strikeouts, second in the majors in strikeouts per nine innings, and eighth in strikeout to walk ratio, but 25th in WHIP. With a solid defense behind them, this rotation – along with the possible addition of Homer Bailey – could look as impressive next year as Tampa Bay's does this year.


Questions? Concerns? Comments? Asher lives in Philadelphia, PA, and can be reached at asher@baseballevolution.com.